Series Fortune Fortuna Painting By Tatiana Siedlova When will the outbreak of COVID19 end? Have we flatten the curve? When is it safe to reopen the economy? These are questions that are hunting Mexico right now and which have spurred a heated debate all over the country. To answer these inquiries in a policy relevant way, we need to produce analysis that is fundamentally different to what we are used to. This note summarizes the work that some colleagues and I at Tecnologico